November Rail Time: A Deeper Look
The November Rail Time Report that I’m reviewing now can be found at: http://www.aar.org/~/media/aar/railtimeindicators/2011-12-rti.ashx
What I find very interesting in this report are some of the back pages, including the monthly reminder that rail traffic is an indicator of U.S. Gross Domestic Product, which is, itself a good indicator of how the U.S. economy is doing. Better yet, rail traffic can be pretty quickly assessed, while GDP can take months to assess accurately and is subject to revision as much as a year after a month or quarter was originally reported. The American Association of Railroads published this month’s update on starting on page 17.
BUT DON’T Include Grain!!
See what I mean with the chart:
According to AAR, traffic in metals, metal product, automobiles and products to make steel are all up. A good sign for both the economy and railroads. Traffic in coal is down in the U.S. which AAR says coincides with lower prices for the now more-abundant natural gas from Marcellus shale-type drilling operations. This is a double-edged sword, depending on what kind of railroad you operate. Class I railroads, which use Appalachian or Powder-River Basin coal as a commodity life-blood for operations, will see that side of the business become less important. The domestic factors affecting demand here are productivity/demand from users like electric utilities and some industries (coke-steel-aluminum), availability of alternatives like Marcellus Gas for identical uses and environmental regulation. IF, and it’s a big if, the economy stays flat and Marcellus Gas production continues and produces well and cheaply and remains unaffected by tightening environmental drilling regulation in producing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York — there’s a great deal of potential for marginal users of coal to swtich to natural gas as the prices become more competitive.
From the regional and short-line perspective — think Genessee & Wyoming – Marcellus is a God-send. As many of you know, railroads are the only means of transport for large, heavy and great quantities of stuff that drillers need to go after Marcellus gas in remote areas of Appalachia. And for the time being, some gas will also have to be transported by modified tank cars as liquified petroleum gas until new pipeline networks are installed in the field…. while leads to these charts:
All said and done … nice job railroads!
RailTime First Glance
The first look at AAR’s monthly report okn rail traffic for November shows that US and Canadian shipments increased by 2.3% from November 2010. Grain, was still down overall by about 15,000 US carloads to 106,264. AAR said this is the fourth straight month of decreased grain loads due mostly to lower exports. Although, the Dept. Of Agriculture from October, showed that exports to Libya and Egypt– big wheat importers– was almost non- existent compared to 2010. Coal remains low while petro-chemical loads, including lubricants, liquid petroleum gas and fuel oil was up almost 19 percent since this time last year, to 38,344 carloads. As I wrote two weeks ago, this looks like it will require follow-up with a full article.
There is a distinct possibility that the up- tick here is due to Marcellus shale LPG products transported to market without the benefit of existing supply pipelines installed in the fields.
Other bulk commodities did well, specifically, stone, gravel, sand, crushed stone, glass, etc. This category increased 11.8% to 70,377 carloads. More in the morning…
Rail-Time Indicator Monthly Update Coming
AAR released it’s monthly update covering November on Friday. This is only one small reason why I haven’t posted in two weeks. The others involve moving back to Erie home territory.
Breakdown on the Rail-Time ASAP, and I think Sunday night is a good target.
Old Erie’s Portage Bridge To be Replaced?
LETCHWORTH STATE PARK — New economic opportunities and MarcellusShale drilling are two factors in Norfolk Southern’s plans toreplace the his…
via Opportunity knocking at Portage bridge – The Daily News Online: News.
Sadly, the photo that NS provided to The Daily News is of some other bridge, and not the one in Letchworth State Park. From having been at the base of the bridge multiple times, I can attest that trains are slow-ordered and in peril ruining the bridge with continued use.
California High Speed Rail Money Questioned
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/23/local/la-me-high-speed-money-20111123
It seems that the current allocations to HSR funding are subject to claw-backs by Congress. We’ll see how this one progresses.
Grain exports still down, but not necessarily from competition.
I had a chance to listen in on the weekly U.S. Farm Report. One of two analysts on the report agreed with U.S. Dept. of Agriculture reports that U.S. grain exports are down for the year, so far. Rather than late harvesting, as I’ve suggested here, the analyst said that competition from the Ukraine and other former Soviet-bloc nations, combined with high prices has priced US grain out of the market to an extent. So far, I’ve found little evidence to support that assertion. What I can tell you is that the grain exports are down across the board, especially to Egypt and Libya. Before 2011, Egypt was a significant U.S. grain importer. I’m searching through grain stocks reports right now. Let you know more in the morning.
New Pro-Railroad Ad Campaign
If you are a smart Alec at heart, instead of confidently announcing ”Beef is what’s for dinner” at the Thanksgiving table or socking a sibling in the gut when their mouth is full, and slyly asking, “Got Milk?”; imagine sending an e-mail to the CEO of your company and typing out “Freight Rail Works.”
The last slogan from the American Association of Railroads is not the least bit tongue-in-cheek, an assertive, no-nonsense kind phrase that seems meant for the factory CEOs, farm co-ops and U.S.
The Internet home of the campaign at http://freightrailworks.org/, is an amalgam of informational videos, digitized print ads and interactive bits and bites that put freight railroading in the best light possible.
The Web site covers all angles from low fuel-consumption per ton-mile of a train, relatively higher wages for blue-collar workers, oh and the fact that rail rates are decreasing (trucking rates have too during the recession). These are pretty much given for railfans at heart and for industry professionals who know these basics. The difference is that the facts are presented in a way, here, that makes it interesting even to someone who hasn’t heard the whole story before.
Kuddos, AAR!
Happy Thanksgiving!!
On this, most American of Holidays, I wish peace, happiness and contentment to all Americans. I am thankful for a wonderful family, a country in which I can blog on railroads, and for the men and women who transport all I consumer from the coasts to my table. God Bless them!
